Sports Wagering: When Do You Make NFL Wagers?

It's Sunday morning mid-way through football season. You're waiting outside the sportsbook at the casino – figures are switching on the huge boards, dressed-to-kill bettors are intent-eyed, and you're standing there attempting to determine how to utilize your last $200 following a long night of chasing roulette on the casino floor. The very fact that you’re here probably means you’ve got a hunch, a system you’ve been working on, or maybe just a brother-in-law who won’t stop talking about how the New York Jets are going to light it up this weekend. For anyone looking to better understand timing in sports betting, sites like https://gambling-sites.pro/ can be a helpful reference. Regardless of the reason you're betting, something always comes before putting money down: whom do you actually have faith in winning the game?

Understanding when to bet starts with understanding whom to bet on. That's the foundation of keeping your profit potential.

Let's take it step by step.

Hedging Bets

With football already being the topic, let's just keep going with it. Most professional punters love hedging bets – essentially betting on both the home and away side of a game to reduce risk and ensure your initial investment returns. For example, you might bet on the Chicago Bears straight out to win, but then hedge at the last moment by laying their opponents just in case things go wrong. It’s similar to pulling back in craps after you’ve already invested on the pass line – more about damage control than maximizing profit.

That’s not the approach we’re focusing on here. For this guide, let’s set hedging aside.

Letting Profits Grow

Rather, let's talk about how to maximize your edge – like doubling down in blackjack or pressing odds on your pass line in craps. Both are bets that require faith in your initial wager and don't become effective until the game has already been initiated. Sports betting isn't any different: timing and patience are leverage, especially if you're targeting halftime or quarter-related wagers.

I'll provide you with three or four NFL betting tips that incorporate this "profit multiplier" approach – but more potent and with a smaller edge on the house.

Take, for instance, the example of the $200 bankroll mentioned above. Divide that equally between the bets (3 or 4 plays).

The Moneyline (on teams that are priced more than -200)

• $50 wager placed just before kickoff.
  You can't possibly win unless you bet on the winning team. So before the game starts, put your money on the winning team, hoping to get around -200 or better. The caveat here is that if you bet on a favorite (such as -500 or worse), your return will be terrible. In which case, you're better off waiting for an intelligible line.

The Spread (for teams priced below -200)

• $50 bet before the second half.
  If the Patriots are on the moneyline at -550, that's not good. But if the spread is -7 (-110), and during the game it drops down to -3 or better, that's your money.

For example, if Buffalo takes a 13-point lead at halftime, the Patriots’ second-half spread might be -3. Strike there. You’re betting on the stronger team to rally in the second half, and the odds are much more favorable than locking in early.

Second-Half Over/Under

• $50 bet placed before the third quarter.
  A full-game over/under pre-kickoff is riskier. But during halftime, you can place a brasher call having watched how both teams play.

For instance, in Week 11, the Vikings trailed the Broncos 20-0 at halftime. The second-half total was 20. If you believed that the Vikings would stage a comeback, they'd need to score more than 21 points to win. That left placing the over bet on the second-half line the only logical choice.

Fourth-Quarter Moneyline

• $100 bet placed before the final quarter.
  This works best when your team is behind entering the fourth quarter. The bigger the deficit, the greater the payout swing. A -550 pregame favorite can become -220 on the spot, giving much better value for a side you already had faith in.

It's like doubling up late in the game with improved odds so you can cash out when your side stages the comeback that you predicted.

Full Example: Denver @ Minnesota

I had thought the Vikings were going to win, but their pregame moneyline of -419 was too rich. So I waited for better value.

• After they were down 20 to the Broncos at halftime, I took Minnesota -3 for the second half ($50).
• I took over 20 second-half as well ($50).
• Down 23-7 early in the fourth quarter, I took the Vikings' moneyline for $100.

Final score: Vikings 27, Broncos 23.

Payouts:

• 2H Spread -3 paid at -110.
• 2H More than 20 paid -110.
• 4Q Moneyline paid -220.

All three made it, earning me $138 profit aside from the $200 wagered. That's not a huge return percentage-wise, but given that the Vikings opened the week at -520 on the moneyline and -10.5 on the spread, the timing provided me with much more value than an early wager would have.

Why These Bets As Opposed to Others?

Yes, you can lay futures or early-week lines, but they lock you up too soon. You don't get to see live-game swings and trends. With halftime and quarter lines, you're flexible enough to adjust to what you're observing occur.

If you are confident about your team, don't settle for crumbs. Stay away from nickel-and-dime, forget hedging constantly, and come at it like a day trader reading the real-time dials. With patience and timing, you don't earn a slice of the pie – you earn the whole thing.